Elections 2019: The Most Likely Outcome (the Second Round)
MABB ©
The coming elections in Bolivia is reaching its highest point. The campaigns are at full steam, though with a not so insignificant self-imposed break due to the fires in the Chiquitania region in Santa Cruz. However, the candidates are doing the possible to take out their message and reach voters as much as they can. The candidates with better prospects aside from Morales are Carlos Mesa from Comunidad Ciudadana and Oscar Ortiz from Bolivia Dice No/21F. In terms of polls however Ortiz is fighting an increasingly uphill battle.
Interesting this time, was the Americanization of the campaign. With that I mean, the vicepresident candidates of the participating political organizations with real prospects are engaging in a series of televised debates. The first debate was televised this week by the network Red Uno. If anyone is interested in following these debates, head to Uno's website. I watched that debate and I found the VP candidate from Bolivia Dijo No, Shirley Franco, was giving the MAS candidate and acting VP Alvaro Garcia and Comunidad Ciudadana's VP candidate Gustavo Pedraza a hard time by attacking them with facts, a clear message and some spontaneous wit. An interesting question is whether these debates will have an impact in the level of support for any of the opposing candidates. But, that may be another post.
The question I want to address here is: what is the most likely outcome after the votes are counted?
To answer that question we have to take a look at the procedure written in black and white.
The elections on October 20th are labled general elections. This means voters will have to vote (and therefore elect) for president, vicepresident and members of congress. Now, the procedure to translate the votes into outcomes are set in the law of electoral regime number 26, passed in 2010.
These law says the outcome (the election of presidents, vps and congress) will be determined according to two possible outcomes. The first possibility is the direct election of the president and vp. For this to happen the winner candidates (both taken as a pair) have to win with 50% + 1 of the votes counted.
In the case the winner pair does not get more than 50% of the votes, it can still win if it gets 40% + 1 of the votes and the second pair follower gets at least 10% less.
Only in these two situations will the president and vp will be appointed to office.
The second possibility, and the most likely, is for neither of the pairs to reach the necessary conditions to be directly elected and therefore the law prescribes a second round of elections within 60 days.
The pairs have 45 days to withdraw without penalties. After that, the second round of elections would happen, with new precinct officials at the voting tables.
The most likely scenario
If you read my prior post you are aware of the latest polls. These polls present a clear signal for a second round of elections where the most likely pairs to compete are MAS and CC.
While Morales has been leading the polls, with some showing his support in the 40s, the average support is only around 35%, down from what once was a proud 65% support. At the same time, the CC candidate, Carlos Mesa, has been gaining (very slowly but surely) support to reach an encouraging 27% on average.
This current state, points to a second round of elections between Morales and Mesa where the outcome is wide open.
Analysis
Taking into account this situation, it looks like Morales needs to win in the first round. If it waits for a second round, it might lose the elections. In this situation, getting 50% plus seems near to impossible. Even in Bolivia, the level of support does not change that fast, of course unless something big happens. The fires in the Chiquitania would be such an event. However, the government has been active on responding as best possible to this disaster. So, in my opinion, these fires will not be that blow for Morales, but they do have the potential to weaken the support even more. This is because the victims of the fires are asking the government to declare state of emergency and the government does not want to do so. This makes the government seem insensitive and hard headed and gives munition to the opposition.
What the MAS is most likely to aim for is to reach the 40% plus level, which is within reach, and in a parallel manner work to lower the upward trend from the second pair, the CC, to at least achieve a 10% difference. This situation is within reach of the MAS. The party's strategy seems to keep on showing itself as the good government that builds all kinds of good things for the people and brings all kinds of goodies as well. At the same time, on the campaign train, they seem to be highlighting all the good things they have done and will do if they are elected again. In short, continuity is the motto.
The danger with that is that the opposition has an open target to which to shoot, even if it messes. Any shot seems to be inflicting damage and the government does not seem to be doing anything to ditch or step aside.
Carlos Mesa seems to be pretty sure he will win in the second round of elections. It seems to me he is surely pursuing this strategy. All numbers point to this outcome and that Mesa will get what it wants. However, I would issue a warning here. Carlos Mesa has shown in his career as politician a naive approach to politics and amateur skills at best. I do not need to remind us all of his presidency, but I will cite here his wrong choice for press secretary which ended in the secretary's premature departure after a pretty unplanned or careless statement to the public. This statement ended up costing Mesa some weeks in his campaign. In this regard, I would be careful of the MAS and pay much attention to what Morales' team does in the next weeks to outmaneuver Mesa. No doubt they have much more experience than Mesa. Unless, their plan is to leave it to Mesa to do the job for them.
The coming elections in Bolivia is reaching its highest point. The campaigns are at full steam, though with a not so insignificant self-imposed break due to the fires in the Chiquitania region in Santa Cruz. However, the candidates are doing the possible to take out their message and reach voters as much as they can. The candidates with better prospects aside from Morales are Carlos Mesa from Comunidad Ciudadana and Oscar Ortiz from Bolivia Dice No/21F. In terms of polls however Ortiz is fighting an increasingly uphill battle.
Interesting this time, was the Americanization of the campaign. With that I mean, the vicepresident candidates of the participating political organizations with real prospects are engaging in a series of televised debates. The first debate was televised this week by the network Red Uno. If anyone is interested in following these debates, head to Uno's website. I watched that debate and I found the VP candidate from Bolivia Dijo No, Shirley Franco, was giving the MAS candidate and acting VP Alvaro Garcia and Comunidad Ciudadana's VP candidate Gustavo Pedraza a hard time by attacking them with facts, a clear message and some spontaneous wit. An interesting question is whether these debates will have an impact in the level of support for any of the opposing candidates. But, that may be another post.
The question I want to address here is: what is the most likely outcome after the votes are counted?
To answer that question we have to take a look at the procedure written in black and white.
The elections on October 20th are labled general elections. This means voters will have to vote (and therefore elect) for president, vicepresident and members of congress. Now, the procedure to translate the votes into outcomes are set in the law of electoral regime number 26, passed in 2010.
These law says the outcome (the election of presidents, vps and congress) will be determined according to two possible outcomes. The first possibility is the direct election of the president and vp. For this to happen the winner candidates (both taken as a pair) have to win with 50% + 1 of the votes counted.
In the case the winner pair does not get more than 50% of the votes, it can still win if it gets 40% + 1 of the votes and the second pair follower gets at least 10% less.
Only in these two situations will the president and vp will be appointed to office.
The second possibility, and the most likely, is for neither of the pairs to reach the necessary conditions to be directly elected and therefore the law prescribes a second round of elections within 60 days.
The pairs have 45 days to withdraw without penalties. After that, the second round of elections would happen, with new precinct officials at the voting tables.
The most likely scenario
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| Source: Miguel A. Buitrago, based on OEP data |
If you read my prior post you are aware of the latest polls. These polls present a clear signal for a second round of elections where the most likely pairs to compete are MAS and CC.
While Morales has been leading the polls, with some showing his support in the 40s, the average support is only around 35%, down from what once was a proud 65% support. At the same time, the CC candidate, Carlos Mesa, has been gaining (very slowly but surely) support to reach an encouraging 27% on average.
This current state, points to a second round of elections between Morales and Mesa where the outcome is wide open.
Analysis
Taking into account this situation, it looks like Morales needs to win in the first round. If it waits for a second round, it might lose the elections. In this situation, getting 50% plus seems near to impossible. Even in Bolivia, the level of support does not change that fast, of course unless something big happens. The fires in the Chiquitania would be such an event. However, the government has been active on responding as best possible to this disaster. So, in my opinion, these fires will not be that blow for Morales, but they do have the potential to weaken the support even more. This is because the victims of the fires are asking the government to declare state of emergency and the government does not want to do so. This makes the government seem insensitive and hard headed and gives munition to the opposition.
What the MAS is most likely to aim for is to reach the 40% plus level, which is within reach, and in a parallel manner work to lower the upward trend from the second pair, the CC, to at least achieve a 10% difference. This situation is within reach of the MAS. The party's strategy seems to keep on showing itself as the good government that builds all kinds of good things for the people and brings all kinds of goodies as well. At the same time, on the campaign train, they seem to be highlighting all the good things they have done and will do if they are elected again. In short, continuity is the motto.
The danger with that is that the opposition has an open target to which to shoot, even if it messes. Any shot seems to be inflicting damage and the government does not seem to be doing anything to ditch or step aside.
Carlos Mesa seems to be pretty sure he will win in the second round of elections. It seems to me he is surely pursuing this strategy. All numbers point to this outcome and that Mesa will get what it wants. However, I would issue a warning here. Carlos Mesa has shown in his career as politician a naive approach to politics and amateur skills at best. I do not need to remind us all of his presidency, but I will cite here his wrong choice for press secretary which ended in the secretary's premature departure after a pretty unplanned or careless statement to the public. This statement ended up costing Mesa some weeks in his campaign. In this regard, I would be careful of the MAS and pay much attention to what Morales' team does in the next weeks to outmaneuver Mesa. No doubt they have much more experience than Mesa. Unless, their plan is to leave it to Mesa to do the job for them.
