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Bolivia: Between the Corona Virus and General Elections

Bolivia Today ©

At present time, Bolivia seems to be lost between the deepening of the corona virus pandemic and having to hold general elections (presidential and legislative elections) to once and for all resolve the political crisis that ensued the electoral fraud from October 2019. After having halted the electoral process early this year as the pandemic reached the country, the caretaker government (pressured by the opposition and other candidates) decided to allow the continuation of the electoral process by signing law 1304 on June 21. On June 25, the TSE or Supreme Electoral Tribunal, the entity in charge of carrying out the general elections, set a definite date, which is September 6, 2020.

As I write these lines, I do not know if the elections will be held by that date. In fact, it seems it is unlikely so because the number of infections have been dramatically rising in the last weeks. So much so, that aside from Santa Cruz, La Paz and Tarija have began to report a steep rise in the number of infections. The situation has become even more critical in recent days because President Añez, Senate President Eva Copa and Chuquisaca Governor, Efrain Balderas, have been confirmed as positive. Added to that, there are at least 20 congress man and women as well as a number of cabinet members also isolated because they tested positive to the virus.

The country is looking again at the possibility of re-instating hard infection prevention measures, as it did in March and April. The measures restricted mobility and closed a number of social and economic activities. Now it seems as though, if the situation keeps getting worse, those measures can come back. Many people were not happy about them because the measures affected their day-to-day work and their ability to survive in an already fragile situation.


Source: Number of Confirmed Cases, boliviasegura.gob.bo

As you can see (images above and below), Bolivia has been hit by a wave of infections that is already starting to make world news. As of last Friday the 10th, Bolivia had more than 45 thousand confirmed infections, with La Paz, the government seat, becoming more and more a problem spot, along with Santa Cruz. The country is on alarm because the number of confirmed cases per day has surpassed 1000 and health officials see no easing in this trend.

New Cases per Day

Source: Cases per Department, boliviasegura.gob.bo

Bolivia has entered a critical phase in the corona pandemic. Since mid-June, the rate of infections has picked up pace, reaching an average of 900 plus infections per day, in the last days. As the image above shows, Santa Cruz (green line) has been hit hard since mid-May, and currently is being followed by La Paz (dark green line) which has been experiencing a surge since the end of June, after having been steady all along. In the last days La Paz together with El Alto have reported over 600 positive cases in one day. A third worrying case has been Cochabamba (yellow line), where many hospitals have been overwhelmed (especially in the south and north of the city), as well as he cemeteries. Another spot seems to be Tarija, which in the last days has been reporting more than 1000 cases per day.

Source: Municipalities per Risk Level, boliviasegura.gob.bo

In fact, a look at the situation by municipality reveals a worrisome pattern. The image above shows the Bolivian map per municipality. The municipalities in red denote those considered high infection risk zones. In the last week the number of red zones has reached 152.

The virus has reached the government

As mentioned before, the infections have reached the government apparatus. A number of officials have tested positive for the virus. In recent days caretaker President Añez announced on Twitter she tested positive for the virus:
The tweet says: "I have tested positive for Covid19, I feel good, I will work from my isolation. Together we will progress ahead."

There are a number of ministers that have tested positive as well. The latest is the Health minister, Eidy Roca, who is going to be covered by Defense minister Luis Fernando Lopez.

Eva Copa also announced her infection per Twitter:
The tweet says: "I inform Bolivia that the results of the test have been positive for Covid-19. I follow the health regulations and will isolate myself for the necessary period. I am stable and will not cease my functions and work at the ALP (Plurinational Legislative Assembly). I will keep working through social networks."

According to press reports, there are 20 legislators currently who tested positive. This number includes some legislators who are currently getting healthy. In the senate there are 10, including Copa, and in the lower chamber there are also 10.

The governor of Chuquisaca, Efrain Balderas, is also isolated. In his case, the Departamento's health official (SEDES), Enrique Leaño, made the announcement.
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Update Jul. 14:

Five cabinet ministers have tested positive.

Karen Longaric (External Relations), Yerko Núñez (Min. of the Presidency), Jorge Oropeza (Mining), Eidy Roca (Health) and Álvaro Coimbra (Min. of Justice).

In addition, the following Viceministers (Deputies) have also tested positive: Javier Issa (Interior), José Luis Vacaflor (Coordination with Social Movements), Israel Alanoca (Governmental Coordination), and Guido Melgar (Transparency).
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The police and the military have also been hit by the virus. Both institutions have reported dozens of positive cases and a number of deaths. The institutions, aside from their official duties, have been taking part in what Bolivians call "rastrillaje", which means a group of health officials and volunteers and police or military personnel going door to door trying to gather infection data.

After these news, many people have started asking the succession question coming back to the question we were asking on October last year. Who will step in if something prevents the president from exercising her functions? The line of succession in the new constitution says the first in line is the Senate President, the next in line would be the President of the lower chamber or Chamber of Deputies. In this case it would be Sergio Choque (MAS).

The situation in general

The situation has been very dramatic. There are press reports of bodies been left on the streets for days. The largest cities have been confronted with a high demand of funerary, burial and crematory services to take care of the people who have lost their battle against the virus. This lack of capacity, coupled with the inability of the hospitals and clinics to deal with the number of sick people (mostly because they do not have the necessary instruments and not enough beds) has resulted on some people dying on the streets. People are being turned away because the hospitals are already full. The press reported about bodies being left out on the streets and nobody feeling responsibility to collect such cases, neither the police, nor the funeral businesses, nor the health departments. There were also reports of people dying on the job and most, at home.

While the virus spreads dramatically, the political struggle continues at expense of the contagion risk. People go on organizing gatherings, marches, protests, etc. For example, a group of citizens blocked the work of the local trash collection company in Cochabamba. After preventing for days that the company collected the trash in the city the Departmental, Municipal and the Ombudsman negotiated an agreement to free up the trash collection services. In fact, there have been other protests, gatherings and demonstrations, especially in La Paz and El Alto. Some press reports talk about MAS supporters gathering sporadically and calling the pandemic a government trick to stay in power. The COB (Bolivian Workers Central) is getting ready to stage a national march next week protesting some government measures, namely working restrictions, access to medicine, health care and other issues. The march will take place in the nine departments. Finally, there is a march from the rural teachers union which intends to call attention to their demands.

The elections

The electoral tribunal has recently issued the calendar and has re-started the process of updating the voters registry, which in Bolivia is known as the Padron Electoral. In this link you can see the new calendar (link directs to a PDF document) and this other link takes you to the site where you can check if you are in the list. The TSE has been trying to clean up the list since last year there were reports of many deceased people voting.

Meanwhile Congress has passed a law taking away the financing for political organizations (i.e. political parties) taking part in the elections and re-directing those funds to the fight against the virus. That happened pretty much without much debate about the advantages and disadvantages of such a measure.

Implications

The implications are hard to come by. My take is, if the rate of infections do not reach a peak in the next four weeks, the elections are bound to be postponed once again. I cannot see the government dealing with the elections and a rise on infections at the same time, especially if the hard measures are re-instated, which some cities are already starting to implement again.

The worst case scenario would be if President Añez does get sick (until now she is asymptomatic), and what happens if Senate President Copa also gets sick? That would be a double trouble.

On the contrary, if the country comes to more or less some kind of control of the infections, the elections will happen.

So, Bolivia seems to be caught up between a rock and a hard place where, on the one side, the country needs to resolve this political limbo in which it finds itself right now and it needs to reach a position in which it is in control of the pandemic.


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