Elections 2019: Political Organization's Programmes
MABB ©
The Bolivian electoral landscape, already in the last stretch of the campaign season, is populated with nine political organizations, of which, only two have a real chance to achieve some success, one trails considerably behind and has minimal chance and the rest, which do not have any chance, sway along the 1 to 3 percent of electoral support. As much as the pre-electoral season has become interesting, due to the several debates among the second row candidates, several television interviews of the candidates themselves, the issues being discussed and the participation of a new generation of politicians (along with some old ones), voters however seem to be going back and forth between two states: 1) either they already know for whom they will vote and nothing seems to influence them to change that. 2) or many seem to not know for whom they will vote and (presumably) are ready to change their preferences. This last state, which usually is around 10 percent, includes those who have said they do not yet know for whom they will vote, but also those who say they will vote blank or null. It is so, that in Bolivian pre-elections periods there is always an elevated percentage of such people, but that number, after all is said and done, falls smaller. In this election cycle, it is precisely that 10 percent difference what may make the difference between a continued or a new government.
One factor that may play a role in convincing the one or the other voter to vote for this or that political organization or candidate may be that organization's own government programme. Many voters at this point in time are asking themselves what alternatives there are and what exactly do those political organizations will want to implement once in power. In similar manner, observers of Bolivian politics might be asking themselves the same questions.
But, first things first. This post aims at addressing those questions by presenting a table I made for myself based on the more or less careful reading and summarizing of the various government programmes presented to the "electoral organ" (that is how Bolivians refer to the country's electoral agency) by the political organizations taking part in the elections.
To start of, however, I must point out that the following summary includes only the three political organizations with a real chance at getting voter support of more than 5 percent. This is according to the already published polls in this blog. The three political organizations are: the Movement Towards Socialism (Movimiento al Socialism, MAS), Citizen Community (Communidad Ciudadana, CC), and Bolivia Said No/February 21 (Bolivia Dijo No/F21).
Second, the set of issues have been directly extracted from the documents. The text in the table reflects, to a large extent, the structure of the MAS document. For that reason, I had to move some statements from the other two documents here and there to make it more understandable for me. Therefore, let's remember that many of these statements are normative and as such they might belong in more than one category, according to the person who categorizes them.
Third, from the text, I extracted what seemed to me the most concrete statement demonstrating a concrete step, i.e. either the formulation of a policy or the passing of a law. Nevertheless, there are some more general statements that might formulate an intention. I extracted such statements in the absence of concrete examples.
Lastly, the table below shows, on the left column, the set of issues that seem important for the political organizations. The three other columns show the issues by political organization. The table will hopefully allow you to: a) inform yourself about what each political organization pretends to implement if they win the elections, and b) compare and contrast among the three "parties".
In summary, the three political organizations with the most chances seem to concur in some parts and differ on others. In my view, that would be typical in a "party" system where there are no institutionalized political parties anymore, but the parties are true agglomerations of different political interests in the form of alliances or movements. The sole aim seems to be the achievement of power to set those interests though.
The MAS seems to be betting for continuity. Evo Morales says "there are two roads, go back to the past or continue with the process of change." In that sense, judging from how the Bolivian economy is growing and the marginal but real progress that has been achieved under Morales, as well as the number of people already depending on the MAS apparatus, the MAS intends to keep its path. That is the reason why most of the programme is filled with very concrete policies expressing the deepening of the "proceso de cambio". One example being, continue with the supply of home gas infrastructure for its use in the kitchen.
The political organization CC, headed by Mesa, seems to be making emphasis on what Mesa calls, "the restitution of democracy". The argument is the current government is seriously undermining the democratic process. Another argument seems to be the return of Bolivia to the republican form of government. However, according to CC's programme it does not seem to want to change much. Another issue that comes across prominently is corruption (from the side of MAS) and the reform of the economic model. Additional issues seem to be the application of policies sensible to the environment and health and education.
As far as the BDN-21F alliance, it seems the focus is on the exhaustion of the current government. Ortiz keeps on saying the MAS government has completed its cycle and should be changed. Other arguments seem to point to the economic model, the reform of the state, corruption, health and education.
The common issues among the three political organizations seem to be the industrialization of the hydrocarbons, lithium and mining sectors, as well as the universalizing of health insurance and the improvement in the quality of education.
Now, what does that tell us about who is going to win? Probably very little. The electoral process seems to be hijacked by emotions and personal interests. The voter seems to be either a MAS supporter, who thinks Bolivia is on the right path and probably is indeed directly benefiting from the MAS being in power through a job or subsidy or social transfer, or he or she thinks the MAS is corrupt and Evo Morales should not be running for elections for a fourth consecutive term.
Lastly, the only current alternative seems to be at the moment Carlos Mesa, the former president and current candidate for CC. The only president in recent history who enjoyed equally high levels of approval while in office, other than Morales, was Mesa. The only problem with Mesa is that he is no politician and, in my opinion, he does not have the skills to set his policy through. He seems caught up in an intellectual level where he might think he can reason policy through, while we all know with reason only a president does not set implement his agenda.
Mesa has proven he lacks the skill of bringing people together. He was not able to bring, for example, the opposition together. In fact, Santa Cruz's Governor, Ruben Costas, has recently referred to Mesa as incapable of listening the other side's argument. Costas described Mesa as "(a person who) did not want to unite the opposition." Apparently, in a conversation, Costas asked Mesa to make space for a new generation of politicians and Mesa declined. Also, Mesa lacks that practical approach that most politicians have to have in order to conduct politics. He seems too principled.
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| Source: OEP |
The Bolivian electoral landscape, already in the last stretch of the campaign season, is populated with nine political organizations, of which, only two have a real chance to achieve some success, one trails considerably behind and has minimal chance and the rest, which do not have any chance, sway along the 1 to 3 percent of electoral support. As much as the pre-electoral season has become interesting, due to the several debates among the second row candidates, several television interviews of the candidates themselves, the issues being discussed and the participation of a new generation of politicians (along with some old ones), voters however seem to be going back and forth between two states: 1) either they already know for whom they will vote and nothing seems to influence them to change that. 2) or many seem to not know for whom they will vote and (presumably) are ready to change their preferences. This last state, which usually is around 10 percent, includes those who have said they do not yet know for whom they will vote, but also those who say they will vote blank or null. It is so, that in Bolivian pre-elections periods there is always an elevated percentage of such people, but that number, after all is said and done, falls smaller. In this election cycle, it is precisely that 10 percent difference what may make the difference between a continued or a new government.
One factor that may play a role in convincing the one or the other voter to vote for this or that political organization or candidate may be that organization's own government programme. Many voters at this point in time are asking themselves what alternatives there are and what exactly do those political organizations will want to implement once in power. In similar manner, observers of Bolivian politics might be asking themselves the same questions.
But, first things first. This post aims at addressing those questions by presenting a table I made for myself based on the more or less careful reading and summarizing of the various government programmes presented to the "electoral organ" (that is how Bolivians refer to the country's electoral agency) by the political organizations taking part in the elections.
To start of, however, I must point out that the following summary includes only the three political organizations with a real chance at getting voter support of more than 5 percent. This is according to the already published polls in this blog. The three political organizations are: the Movement Towards Socialism (Movimiento al Socialism, MAS), Citizen Community (Communidad Ciudadana, CC), and Bolivia Said No/February 21 (Bolivia Dijo No/F21).
Second, the set of issues have been directly extracted from the documents. The text in the table reflects, to a large extent, the structure of the MAS document. For that reason, I had to move some statements from the other two documents here and there to make it more understandable for me. Therefore, let's remember that many of these statements are normative and as such they might belong in more than one category, according to the person who categorizes them.
Third, from the text, I extracted what seemed to me the most concrete statement demonstrating a concrete step, i.e. either the formulation of a policy or the passing of a law. Nevertheless, there are some more general statements that might formulate an intention. I extracted such statements in the absence of concrete examples.
Lastly, the table below shows, on the left column, the set of issues that seem important for the political organizations. The three other columns show the issues by political organization. The table will hopefully allow you to: a) inform yourself about what each political organization pretends to implement if they win the elections, and b) compare and contrast among the three "parties".
MAS
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CC
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BDNo-F21
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Poverty
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Create programs for the young and women heads of households.
Prioritize the insertion of women in the labor market.
Create “young brigades against poverty” (gather ideas to reduce poverty in areas most affected by poverty).
Create better conditions for small and medium producers in rural and urban areas to increase income.
Introduce social policies to protect families living from traditional agriculture against the risks of climate change.
Build infrastructure for handicapped and senior citizens.
Continue with current policies (social transfers, supply of drinking water, electricity, construction of sewage systems, education, health, housing, economic incentives).
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Eradicate multidimensional poverty.
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Reduce extreme poverty to less than 5% by 2030.
Reduce moderate poverty to between 15 and 25% by 2030.
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Telecommunications
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Reach the 100% coverage target in towns with more than 50 inhabitants.
Implement new technological developments.
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Audit the Tupac Katari Satellite.
Reform the national telecommunications company ENTEL (transparency, efficient, lower prices, better service, technology, data security).
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Build fiber optic nationally.
Build wi-fi connections in public spaces.
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Electricity
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Implement Mi Luz program to reach 100% electricity coverage (rural and urban areas).
Deliver three-phase electricity for rural businesses.
Reach the further corners of the territory using a combination of sources (wind, bio, solar or smaller scale electrical plants).
Continue investment on electricity generation to supply the internal market as well as export to neighbor nations.
Consolidate the national electricity grid to provide constant energy.
Implement the integration of alternative sources of electricity, such as hydroelectricity and solar, wind or biomass.
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Further the generation of electricity through the participation of individuals (families), through solar, bio, etc.)
Provide support for local government in the production of clean energy.
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Further the construction of solar and wind energy at the rural level to provide electricity to households, whom will own the resource and contribute to the national grid.
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Roads
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Continue the construction of road to expand the national road network.
Do maintenance work to the already built roads.
Finish the road towards Ilo port.
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Reform the roads maintenance system (efficient, modern, transparent).
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Connect the east-west and the north-south road networks.
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Trains
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Design and build railway networks for the major urban areas.
Continue the realization of the bi-oceanic train.
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Connect the two railway systems, east and west.
Make the bi-oceanic train a reality.
|
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Cable-cars transport
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Finish the La Paz-El Alto Teleferico Project.
Build similar transportation systems in other cities.
|
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Airports
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Build national and international airports around the country.
Transform the Santa Cruz airport in to a hub.
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Turn Santa Cruz into an international hub for air traffic.
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Housing
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Continue with the construction or modernization of subsidized housing.
Build housing for students.
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Introduce a social housing program with government incentives.
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Natural gas for households
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Continue the construction of networks to bring natural gas to households.
|
||
Health
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Consolidate SUS.
Continue building health centers (hospitals, clinics, etc.).
Provide personnel and equipment to treat major illnesses.
Introduce the mandatory yearly medical check during each citizen’s birthday month.
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Introduce a universal health insurance system.
Create a grave illnesses fund.
Decentralize the health system (finances, administration, more responsibility for departmental and municipal levels of government).
|
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Education
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Continue with the goal to universalize education.
Continue providing additional training for teachers and professors.
Integrate new technologies in education.
Give scholarships for post-graduate training.
Implement a theory/practice system of training.
Implement programs to help the handicapped to join the labor market.
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Evaluate the educational standards.
Apply international standards.
More investment in education (better access, more technology).
Train teachers on new technologies.
Introduce scholarships for technical schools.
Make ecology part of the educational curriculum.
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De-ideologize the education.
Emphasize English and computer programing.
Close the gap between public and private education systems.
Decentralize education (more responsibility for departmental and municipal levels of government).
Train teachers.
Emphasis on hard sciences.
Introduce scholarships for young Bolivians (in and outside Bolivia).
Introduce online learning.
Introduce certification of skills.
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Sports
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Build infrastructure.
Sponsor sport events.
|
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Technology
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Introduce a competitive financing system to fund scientific work.
Build scientific centers and areas where these institutions concentrate in the largest cities.
Develop further nuclear energy research.
Further scientific research in the agricultural and industrial sectors.
|
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Economy
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Continue granting subsidized loans for productive investment and housing.
Develop industry in the chemical, petrochemical, and iron and steel industries.
Continue developing the internal market.
Encourage entrepreneurship.
Implement import substitution model of production.
Promote tourism in Bolivia at the international level.
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Transition to a post-extractive economy.
Introduce a mixed model of economic development (public and private sectors).
Introduce the agrarian productive complexes, where private and public cooperation will increase production.
Creation of an eco-agro-industrial park where ecologically adequate pesticides, herbicides, fungicides, and fertilizers will be produced.
Introduce a sustainable wood industry.
Create the Bolivian Institute of Biotechnology.
Support agricultural production through subsidized credit.
Further the growth of the construction sector (efficiency, technology, ecology, international and national, financing,).
Build infrastructure to transport goods by rivers reaching the Atlantic.
Adopt approach to city development through the concept of intelligent and green cities.
Place emphasis on tourism, gastronomy, technology and culture.
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Assure the continued financing of the Renta Dignidad and other retirement payments.
Eliminate export quotas.
Create an institution to help small and medium enterprises in technical matters.
Establish the Andes Export Plan, South Export Plan and the Amazon Export Plan to help the regions to develop export activity.
Seek trade agreements (bilateral or multilateral).
Re-evaluate the functioning and value of public enterprises.
Reconstitute the independence of the central bank.
Develop capital markets.
Encourage the development of metropolitan regions along the main axis.
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Employment
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Promote employment of young technicians and professionals.
Employment through infrastructure projects.
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Approach the creation of employment through the coordinated work among the public and private sectors.
Encourage the creation of employment for young people (connection between technical schools and universities with enterprises).
Strengthen the manufacturing sector (focus on small and medium companies, niche markets, integration to international production chains, innovation towards natural resources).
Creation of Agencia Bolivia to attract responsible, ethic and green investment.
Reduce red tape for starting business and facilitate production.
Encourage entrepreneurship (taxes, training, red tape, technology, credit).
Encourage commercial exchange (fight against contraband, treaties with preferences for Bolivian products).
Create coworking spaces.
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Create systems for seed financing of startups.
Reform the Law for Labor (modernize, better conditions, protection, productivity, competition, retraining, relations, etc.).
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Natural resources
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Increase the natural gas output (through exploration, extraction and refining).
Implement the production of biodiesel.
Increase the export of Urea.
Continue with the exploration, exploitation and refining of minerals for export.
Develop further the Mutun iron refinery.
Continue investment on lithium and its derivatives industrialization.
Produce batteries and barium products in association with ACI (Germany) and TBEA (China).
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Reorganize the sector to rid it from politically motivated structures.
Create new incentives for the exploration and finding more natural gas reserves.
Industrialize the sector.
Consolidate the Argentina and Brazil markets and seek new markets.
Develop a national strategy for the mining sector with the involvement of all groups interested (meet international demand and growth for actors).
Encourage the cooperative mining sector with financing and technical help.
Develop mining of cobalt, copper, and rare earths to complement the lithium battery industry.
Apply safety standards to protect workers, towns and the environment (technology, norms)
Industrialize the lithium resources.
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Explore and increase natural gas production.
Reevaluate lithium industrialization policies and Encourage its industrialization.
Initiate exploration to find natural gas and the subsequent extraction.
Seek new markets for natural gas.
Reform the Hydrocarbons Law.
Reform taxes in the sector.
Establish an efficient and transparent system for contracting.
Reform YPFB (efficiency, accountability, competition, performance, financing caps, corruption).
Prioritize investment for medium mining enterprises (incentives).
Introduce environment regulation to mining and hydrocarbons.
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Health
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Promote better nutrition for the general public and focus on school children (subsidize nutritious school meals).
Encourage an increase in the production of basic foods to meet internal demand and reduce imports (invest in the production of comestibles).
Expand agricultural areas or land.
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Introduce a new system of universal health care for those without insurance.
Provide health institutions with machinery and doctors.
Promote traditional medicine (complement clinical medicine).
Prioritize children, women, disabled and elderly.
Strengthen telemedicine.
Implement systems of shared responsibility between state and society to take care of children and elderly (voluntary social year for young instead of military service).
Introduce leave of absence for fathers.
|
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Environment
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Promote at the international level the rights of mother earth.
Coordinated management of nature and agriculture to achieve both the preservation of nature and food security.
Consolidate a better system of residuals management.
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Encourage the increase of renewable energies (solar, wind and hydro).
Stop deforestation and encourage reforestation.
Create a unique system for environmental information.
Integrate ecological and environmental policies in the formulation of policies by sectors.
Implement a public education campaign on the environment.
Create a tax on plastic bags.
Finance the development of green cities and municipalities (using circular economy).
Encourage the use of clean and renewable energies at the local level.
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Decentralize policy-making and competencies in environmental issues.
Incentivize conservation with bonuses.
Penalize environmentally damaging technology and pesticides.
Subsidize the transformation to bio-agriculture.
Create a system to make the handling with wood environmentally friendly and sustainable (handling with certificates and establishment of standards).
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Foreign policy
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Continue with the advancement of:
Indigenous peoples rights.
Climate change and mother earth.
Reform of the international financial system.
Revaluation of the coca leaf.
Establish negotiations with Chile to talk about sea access.
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Establishment of Casas Bolivia in many countries.
Better the service in embassies and consulates.
Provide incentives for Bolivians who want to invest in the country.
Eliminate taxes for property repatriation.
Leave ideologically constituted international organizations aligned with Cuba and Venezuela.
Seek close relations with neighbor countries (open markets for goods, easy exit and entry, secured borders).
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State Reform/Public administration
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Continue with Transparency and anti-corruption policies.
Increase investment in the area of citizen security.
Reform the police.
Continue the efforts to eradicate drug trafficking.
Increase investment in the reform of the military (more infrastructure and personnel).
Continue efforts to fight violence against women.
Modernize the justice system.
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Reinstate article 168 of the constitution which establishes presidential terms.
Renew the leadership of the electoral agency on the basis of meritocracy.
Restructure of the state apparatus (specially, electoral court, attorney general’s office, ombudsman, auditor general’s office).
Introduce meritocracy as the basis to hire public servants.
Revise and nullify all laws and regulation in violation of the constitution.
Audit the current government’s actions.
Pass transparency and access to public information laws.
Introduce a platform to control corruption in the areas of administration, hire processes in public works as well as receive complaints.
Expand e-government.
Restructure the justice system, make it independent.
Create citizen’s justice centers (police, public attorneys, ombudsmen, local courts and administration).
Digitize judicial work.
Create commission against impunity.
Reform the police (security, trust and efficiency as well as excellent training).
Introduce a fiscal pact to give the departmental and municipal levels of government more say in the use of financial resources.
Encourage, respect and protect indigenous territories and their rights (previous consultations, autonomy, self-determination).
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Introduce the Access to public information and institutional transparency law.
Introduce the government contracting law.
Introduce the law of effective collaboration for the fight against corruption.
Decentralize and reform the police (better pay, strengthen the technical work, better equipment, raise budget, more personnel).
Zero tolerance for drug-related crime.
Reform the judicial system.
Introduce meritocracy for appointments.
Reform the attorney general’s office.
Federalize the current autonomic system.
Pass a fiscal pact to equally distribute the public funds.
Reform the prior consultation law.
Reform the indigenous justice law (conflict resolution mechanism).
Reform the tax system (reducing and simplifying).
Reform congress (technical assistance, effective horizontal control, accountability to the public).
Bring back electoral courts.
Introduce Plan Digital Bolivia (e-government).
Professionalization of the bureaucratic career (international standards).
Create a simpler tax system (less types and taxes; introduce incentives for investment, growth; support for SMEs).
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Gender
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Fight against violence against women.
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Desegregate the labor market (no more male and female professions).
Promote equality among men and women (pay, education).
Introduce law to prevent murder of women and sexual exploitation (women and minors).
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Fight against violence against women.
Empower women in civil society.
Support entrepreneurship with training and financing for women.
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Agriculture
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Encourage the export of agricultural products.
Encourage the production of value-added agricultural products.
Eliminate existing export quotas.
Insure food security.
Introduce technological innovation.
Create financial services system for the sector.
Encourage the sustainable use of land.
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In summary, the three political organizations with the most chances seem to concur in some parts and differ on others. In my view, that would be typical in a "party" system where there are no institutionalized political parties anymore, but the parties are true agglomerations of different political interests in the form of alliances or movements. The sole aim seems to be the achievement of power to set those interests though.
The MAS seems to be betting for continuity. Evo Morales says "there are two roads, go back to the past or continue with the process of change." In that sense, judging from how the Bolivian economy is growing and the marginal but real progress that has been achieved under Morales, as well as the number of people already depending on the MAS apparatus, the MAS intends to keep its path. That is the reason why most of the programme is filled with very concrete policies expressing the deepening of the "proceso de cambio". One example being, continue with the supply of home gas infrastructure for its use in the kitchen.
The political organization CC, headed by Mesa, seems to be making emphasis on what Mesa calls, "the restitution of democracy". The argument is the current government is seriously undermining the democratic process. Another argument seems to be the return of Bolivia to the republican form of government. However, according to CC's programme it does not seem to want to change much. Another issue that comes across prominently is corruption (from the side of MAS) and the reform of the economic model. Additional issues seem to be the application of policies sensible to the environment and health and education.
As far as the BDN-21F alliance, it seems the focus is on the exhaustion of the current government. Ortiz keeps on saying the MAS government has completed its cycle and should be changed. Other arguments seem to point to the economic model, the reform of the state, corruption, health and education.
The common issues among the three political organizations seem to be the industrialization of the hydrocarbons, lithium and mining sectors, as well as the universalizing of health insurance and the improvement in the quality of education.
Now, what does that tell us about who is going to win? Probably very little. The electoral process seems to be hijacked by emotions and personal interests. The voter seems to be either a MAS supporter, who thinks Bolivia is on the right path and probably is indeed directly benefiting from the MAS being in power through a job or subsidy or social transfer, or he or she thinks the MAS is corrupt and Evo Morales should not be running for elections for a fourth consecutive term.
Lastly, the only current alternative seems to be at the moment Carlos Mesa, the former president and current candidate for CC. The only president in recent history who enjoyed equally high levels of approval while in office, other than Morales, was Mesa. The only problem with Mesa is that he is no politician and, in my opinion, he does not have the skills to set his policy through. He seems caught up in an intellectual level where he might think he can reason policy through, while we all know with reason only a president does not set implement his agenda.
Mesa has proven he lacks the skill of bringing people together. He was not able to bring, for example, the opposition together. In fact, Santa Cruz's Governor, Ruben Costas, has recently referred to Mesa as incapable of listening the other side's argument. Costas described Mesa as "(a person who) did not want to unite the opposition." Apparently, in a conversation, Costas asked Mesa to make space for a new generation of politicians and Mesa declined. Also, Mesa lacks that practical approach that most politicians have to have in order to conduct politics. He seems too principled.
