Elections 2019: Preliminary Results
MABB ©
One day after elections day, some kind of preliminary or unofficial results have been published. Such results are what Bolivians call, rapid count results. So far, they indicate there will be a second round of elections between Evo Morales and Carlos Mesa. Will there?
The OEP has a web site where one can follow the counting process. The page shows the various results, i.e. nationally, per department, per district, per municipality, etc. The image below was published on Sunday evening at 7.40 pm and shows the results of the count with 84% of the voting tables counted.
The preliminary results show Evo Morales having gotten a bit more than 45% support and Carlos Mesa a bit more than 38% of the vote. That would make a difference of 7%.
This implies a runoff election between these two candidates because the difference between them is not 10+ percentage points, which is what the law requires for a winning candidate to lead by in order to directly win the elections.
On its part, the Bolivian media is reporting these results, as it is to be expected. While most media outlets report the official numbers, I am highlighting here the results published in Pagina Siete, which has published instead in its website the results from viaciencia. I do this in order to provide a comparison, for whatever these results are worth. Let us not forget viaciencia has been linked to the government by some politicians. Please pay Pagina Siete a visit to see more detailed results.
Below, I have extracted the national results for the presidential vote.
Pagina siete has used viaciencia's results to publish these results. They show Evo Morales leading the vote with more than 43% and Carlos Mesa following with just above the 39% mark. That is a difference of 4%.
As you can see, these results are not much different from the ones published by the OEP. They differ only by one or two percentage points and result in a 4% difference between Morales and Mesa. The difference they show is a slight advantage for Mesa. The lack of significant differences points to the normal process the elections seemed to have progressed (though there are some concerns, please keep reading).
Digging a bit deeper into the data, it was interesting to see the level of support per department:
The departments in favor of Mesa seem to be: Beni, Chuquisaca, Santa Cruz, and Tarija.
Meanwhile, Cochabamba, La Paz, Oruro, Pando, and Potosi, seem to be supporting Morales. However, the support in Oruro and Pando looks very close.
An alternative "unofficial" source to see rapid count results has been the work of Jubileo and La Paz's public university UMSA. Under the title Your Vote Counts (Tu Voto Cuenta) these two organizations have published results, of which an image is shown below.
The results show Morales leading with 44% and Mesa behind with 38%. That would mean a difference of 5%.
And above you find the departmental vote, where Mesa won in Chuquisaca, Tarija, Santa Cruz and Pando. Morales won in La Paz, Cochabamba, Potosi and Oruro. In Beni, the two candidates were practically tied.
Aside from the results, there seems to be one issue that needs attention. In the last hours, it has become more clear to me that distrust in these results seems to be of significance.
It was not enough for many people that the government went out of its way to highlight the transparency of the process, and especially make repeated assurances the vote count will be fair. At least one political organization, CC, has put in place its own parallel rapid count to assure they are not cheated. CC people are deployed around the country transmitting data to counting centers to provide thus another layer of control.
What is more, many private people have made it a point to return to the voting places to observe the public count as a form of control. Still, many people documented in video and image form, not only the voting and counting processes but also the transportation of those votes in a regular manner to the counting center in each department. People posted those photos and videos on social media.
The media were literally present all around the country showing on image, video and written forms, how the process went. Here television and radio played an important role because they showed live the voting, the counting and the transportation of those votes as well.
Parallel to that, several companies applied for permission to conduct a rapid count of the votes to make this data available to the media, so it can present unofficial results on the same night. It was noted by many observers the only company awarded such permission was viaciencia, of all such companies, the company alleged to have ties to the government. Nevertheless, viaciencia has done its job and published such data.
Lastly, despite all those control efforts, all throughout the day, many analysts and leaders of political organizations called for caution because they distrusted the government. Carlos Mesa, the leader of CC and the most likely candidate to dispute the presidency against Morales in a runoff, has warned the population about some questionable decisions the electoral commission has been making pertaining the process, which it organizes.
In fact, Mesa, and others, are currently on high alert due to the elections agency's decision to stop the transmission of data online. The first image on this post has apparently been the last. After this, the electoral agency has stopped this process and the count is not being updated. The agency has meanwhile said it stopped the updates because too much data was confusing (@TSEBolivia). No word as to when or if it will renew the updates.
Mesa (@carlosdmesag) has been calling foul and not only demanding the government to restore the process but has been calling on the citizens to remain alert. In the meantime, you can already see people around the country going out to the streets and spontaneously demonstrating against electoral fraud. People in Potosi and La Paz have been among the first ones.
That alone would not have been newsworthy, for obvious reasons (i.e. the opposition yelling fraud). However, recent tweets and other posts from the OAS (OEA_oficial) are calling the government to explain why they stopped that process. The OAS has been observing the elections with a large delegation.
I am guessing this will not be the last we see on this issue. If the difference between Mesa and Morales becomes larger, the problem will be even larger for the government. I sense Bolivians, at least the opposition, is not willing to take anything on the light side. They will protest.
#bolivianelections2019 #eleccionesbolivia2019 #eleccionesgenerales #bolivia
One day after elections day, some kind of preliminary or unofficial results have been published. Such results are what Bolivians call, rapid count results. So far, they indicate there will be a second round of elections between Evo Morales and Carlos Mesa. Will there?
The OEP has a web site where one can follow the counting process. The page shows the various results, i.e. nationally, per department, per district, per municipality, etc. The image below was published on Sunday evening at 7.40 pm and shows the results of the count with 84% of the voting tables counted.
 |
| Source: OEP |
The preliminary results show Evo Morales having gotten a bit more than 45% support and Carlos Mesa a bit more than 38% of the vote. That would make a difference of 7%.
This implies a runoff election between these two candidates because the difference between them is not 10+ percentage points, which is what the law requires for a winning candidate to lead by in order to directly win the elections.
On its part, the Bolivian media is reporting these results, as it is to be expected. While most media outlets report the official numbers, I am highlighting here the results published in Pagina Siete, which has published instead in its website the results from viaciencia. I do this in order to provide a comparison, for whatever these results are worth. Let us not forget viaciencia has been linked to the government by some politicians. Please pay Pagina Siete a visit to see more detailed results.
Below, I have extracted the national results for the presidential vote.
 |
| Source: Pagina Siete |
Pagina siete has used viaciencia's results to publish these results. They show Evo Morales leading the vote with more than 43% and Carlos Mesa following with just above the 39% mark. That is a difference of 4%.
As you can see, these results are not much different from the ones published by the OEP. They differ only by one or two percentage points and result in a 4% difference between Morales and Mesa. The difference they show is a slight advantage for Mesa. The lack of significant differences points to the normal process the elections seemed to have progressed (though there are some concerns, please keep reading).
Digging a bit deeper into the data, it was interesting to see the level of support per department:
The departments in favor of Mesa seem to be: Beni, Chuquisaca, Santa Cruz, and Tarija.
Meanwhile, Cochabamba, La Paz, Oruro, Pando, and Potosi, seem to be supporting Morales. However, the support in Oruro and Pando looks very close.
An alternative "unofficial" source to see rapid count results has been the work of Jubileo and La Paz's public university UMSA. Under the title Your Vote Counts (Tu Voto Cuenta) these two organizations have published results, of which an image is shown below.
 |
| Source: Tu Voto Cuenta |
 |
| Source: Tuvotocuenta.org.bo |
Aside from the results, there seems to be one issue that needs attention. In the last hours, it has become more clear to me that distrust in these results seems to be of significance.
It was not enough for many people that the government went out of its way to highlight the transparency of the process, and especially make repeated assurances the vote count will be fair. At least one political organization, CC, has put in place its own parallel rapid count to assure they are not cheated. CC people are deployed around the country transmitting data to counting centers to provide thus another layer of control.
What is more, many private people have made it a point to return to the voting places to observe the public count as a form of control. Still, many people documented in video and image form, not only the voting and counting processes but also the transportation of those votes in a regular manner to the counting center in each department. People posted those photos and videos on social media.
The media were literally present all around the country showing on image, video and written forms, how the process went. Here television and radio played an important role because they showed live the voting, the counting and the transportation of those votes as well.
Parallel to that, several companies applied for permission to conduct a rapid count of the votes to make this data available to the media, so it can present unofficial results on the same night. It was noted by many observers the only company awarded such permission was viaciencia, of all such companies, the company alleged to have ties to the government. Nevertheless, viaciencia has done its job and published such data.
Lastly, despite all those control efforts, all throughout the day, many analysts and leaders of political organizations called for caution because they distrusted the government. Carlos Mesa, the leader of CC and the most likely candidate to dispute the presidency against Morales in a runoff, has warned the population about some questionable decisions the electoral commission has been making pertaining the process, which it organizes.
In fact, Mesa, and others, are currently on high alert due to the elections agency's decision to stop the transmission of data online. The first image on this post has apparently been the last. After this, the electoral agency has stopped this process and the count is not being updated. The agency has meanwhile said it stopped the updates because too much data was confusing (@TSEBolivia). No word as to when or if it will renew the updates.
Mesa (@carlosdmesag) has been calling foul and not only demanding the government to restore the process but has been calling on the citizens to remain alert. In the meantime, you can already see people around the country going out to the streets and spontaneously demonstrating against electoral fraud. People in Potosi and La Paz have been among the first ones.
That alone would not have been newsworthy, for obvious reasons (i.e. the opposition yelling fraud). However, recent tweets and other posts from the OAS (OEA_oficial) are calling the government to explain why they stopped that process. The OAS has been observing the elections with a large delegation.
I am guessing this will not be the last we see on this issue. If the difference between Mesa and Morales becomes larger, the problem will be even larger for the government. I sense Bolivians, at least the opposition, is not willing to take anything on the light side. They will protest.
#bolivianelections2019 #eleccionesbolivia2019 #eleccionesgenerales #bolivia
