Bolivia and Corona: a First Assessment

Bolivia Today ©

Johns Hopkins Corona virus Site

One of the most important questions being raised around the world concerning the covid-19 pandemic is whether the measures being taken by governments have been effective. In the current environment, effectiveness has meant the ability of a government to contain the spread of the virus. For instance, has a liberal approach as that of Sweden's been effective? Or on the contrary, a restrictive approach as that of China's, or a mixed approach as that of France's, have been effective? For that matter, the question of effectiveness has been intimately related to the ethical or moral question about weighing between the cost of lives versus other costs, such as economic costs. But aside from the ethical or moral considerations, the question bout how restrictive should the response be, has been and will still be the main source of preoccupation.

The motivation to write this post lies on the observation that Bolivia has been taking a more restrictive approach as e.g. France but less than China. Many people have raised concerns about some of the liberties and rights being affected by the measures the Bolivian government applied. At the same time, a quick look at the Johns Hopkins corona map (as the one pictured above) suggests the measures are working? There is the map, Bolivia, rather empty, surrounded by dotted Chile, Peru, Ecuador and Brazil, and to a lesser extent, Argentina.

The map, combined with what I have been reading about Bolivia's fight against the virus, prompted me to assess the country's efforts as very restrictive as well as question some of the observations I had made about the measures implemented and their impact on certain freedoms and rights. Bolivia's current situation is of a country under quarantine, with still relatively low number of infections in the region but with an approach that has triggered some criticism. In the end, I found myself asking: Is Bolivia's fight against the virus effective in comparison to other countries? Could Bolivia be a model for other countries?

What has been done and what are the current rules?

In comparison to other neighboring countries the reality on the ground suggest Bolivia has been up to now implementing the right measures to keep under control the infection rate and, therefore, not over burden an already weak health system. Though, as of today, this claim must be made with utmost carefulness because the number of infections reported have jumped enormously in the last days, especially in the most affected departments of Cochabamba, Santa Cruz and Beni.

Source: Erbol - Official Number of New Infections as of June 15

The government implemented a series of measures aiming at reducing the infection rate (here is a prior post of mine). The IMF's policy tracker site has been keeping track of the developments around the world and this is what it has to say about Bolivia:

"a generalized lockdown, entailing the temporary closure of many businesses, border closure and suspension of school, and postponed the general elections originally scheduled on May 3. On March 25, the authorities announced the state of health emergency until April 15 and further tightened the quarantine orders, completely closing the borders, restricting the movement of people to once a week, and prohibiting movements of vehicles except for security and health reasons. On April 14th the national quarantine was extended to April 30th. On April 29, the national quarantine was extended until May 11."

Currently, Bolivia is in a state of what they call a "dynamic and conditioned quarantine". This means, the quarantine continues and therefore the restrictions to some freedoms and even some rights continue, albeit these restrictions are flexible and conditioned to the development of the virus. Following, you see the information the government releases through its information website.

Source: boliviasegura.org.bo

1. The end of the state of emergency and the beginning of the dynamic and conditioned quarantine.
2. This phase is active until June 30.
3. The risks will be determined by the sub-national governments (Departmental and Municipal governments).
4. Free circulation is allowed between 5 am to 6 pm.
5. There should be no circulation of vehicles on the weekends.
6. The borders remain closed, schools remain suspended, and all types of gatherings remain prohibited.
7. Business hours are 9 am to 5 pm (in Bolivia this is known as continued schedule).
8. Everyone is obliged to keep distance (1.5 m), use mouth masks and wash their hands.

However, the country, as mentioned above, has seen an alarming rise in infection cases in recent days, therefore the government has decided to reverse its path to flexibility in favor of a more restrictive status. Most notably is the circulation of vehicles and people will be allowed again according to the last digits of the registration and identification cards, respectively. According to press reports, some Departments have already decided to go back to more restrictive measures. Pando, Santa Cruz, Tarija and Chuquisaca have already reversed their status, while La Paz will reverse it on June 23.

What does the world think about Bolivia's situation

The world has been wondering about the low numbers of infected people in Bolivia, especially in the capital city of La Paz, which sits at about 3600 meters above sea level. There are people who ponder whether the altitude has something to do with it. Other people attribute the success (if we can call it that) to the measures the interim government led by Janine Anez has implemented until now. This last group of people is made up of those who think the government's measures are the right ones and those who say they are not appropriate.

Those people who are critical of the government's measures make a point to call attention to the restrictions implemented. For example, during the quarantine, people were permitted to leave their houses one day a week to shop for food and medicines only. No one could leave their houses by night. Also people could not gather in groups of more than two or three nor could they attend events that meant large number of people. Finally, people had to maintain distance and use face masks. Those who violated the rules were fined and even thrown in jail.

While some of these measures seem familiar to many, the mobility restrictions to once a week and the punishments (e.g. jail or draconian fines) were something to think about.

In addition, more recently, the government issued a decree last May 10 which penalizes any information questioning the quarantine. With that law, many journalists and even more bloggers and other people actively producing information cried foul for freedom of press and expression. It may even be that the government might pass a law forcing people who recuperated from the virus to donate blood.

So, while there is a careful wondering about Bolivia's path, the country and the government is under intense scrutiny from the outside.

Assessment?

For an assessment is definitely too early. However, for a while there was the impression that Bolivia could have been doing things right by somehow preventing people from coming together and that way minimizing the risk of contagion. At least, for what I can gather, that seems the most effective way of dealing with this virus. However, the developments of the last days may seem to contradict this idea. After all, the numbers of new confirmed infections have risen manifold. That gives reason to think.

And yet, despite the seeming contradiction, the argument for preventing people from coming together may stand. A quick revision of the Bolivian news in the last weeks reveals that people have not been keeping strict attention to the rules, especially in the regions now being more affected. The markets were still open, people were partying, and very few were keeping distance and much less wearing masks or washing their hands.

The question arises, how do you deal with this?

I guess we will have to keep observing to make a better appreciation of the measures and their outcomes.