Bolivian Elections 2020: Anez Drops Out, Morales Disqualified

Bolivia Today © 

Own elaboration - Image from ABI

Less than a month from election day, there has been some movement in the Bolivian elections list of candidates. On Thursday, September 17, care-taker President Janine Anez, dropped out of the race, saying she was doing it to prevent a Morales comeback. On September 7, however, Morales was already prevented to stand for election to a Senate seat for Cochabamba. The Electoral Tribunal (TSE) had disqualified him for failing to meet the candidate permanent residency requirement. But, why did Anez say she was quitting the race to prevent a Morales comeback, if he was already out of it? What effects, if any, Anez's actions have for the electoral process? Will more candidates follow?

Morales candidacy

I have argued before the Morales government has managed to gain significant control of the judicial system during its government, among other branches. Through this "advantage" Morales has been able to ultimately run for a fourth term in 2019, which then (and now) was considered unconstitutional and we know now did not go well. This time around, Morales and his party once again sought to circumvent a TSE decision disqualifying him to run on May 2020 for a Cochabamba senate seat.

The decision to include Morales' name in Cochabamba's senate seat slate was made in early February 2020 by the MAS. On February 21, the TSE issued its decision to disqualify Morales on the argument he did not meet the "permanent residency" requirements to run for a senate seat. The tribunal said it followed the law by considering the meaning of permanent residency, which again Morales did not meet. 

The decision over whether Morales could or could not run entered a hiatus during the covid-19 pandemic until it became increasingly clear the elections would indeed take place in 2020. On September 4, 2020 the MAS leadership in Cochabamba ratified the inclusion of Morales' name for a senate seat. In the mean time, from March to September, the MAS had made several attempts at reversing the TSE's decision by relying on a juridical instrument known in Bolivia as amparo constitucional. This instrument is used in cases where the constitutional rights of people are being violated. The MAS and Morales (the lawyers actually) argued Morales' political rights were being violated because he was prevented to run for political office.

Ergo the headlines on September 7 when the Departmental Justice Tribunal (Tribunal Departamental de Justicia, TDJ) of La Paz, after much delay, finally rejected the amparo constitucional and thus confirmed the legality of the TSE's decision. The court's problem was, the decision had to be made by a group of member judges. However, several members were objected because they were deemed having ties with the MAS (either having worked in the government or being member of MAS). This was the result of maneuvering between the MAS legal team and its counterpart. In the end, on September 1, vocales (as member judges of such institutional groups are known in Bolivia), Rene Delgado and Heriberto Pomier, voted for and against, producing a tie. Delgado voted to accept the case, thus allowing Morales to run for office and Pomier voted against. On September 3, Pomier issued a document calling for a third judge to brake the tie and set the defining date for September 7. The tiebreaker judge was Alfredo Jaimes Terrazas, judge in a constitutional court in El Alto. Needless to say, Jaimes Terrazas voted against.

Anez candidacy

As noted earlier, Janine Anez dropped out of the race on September 17. In a video, she said she was leaving the race to prevent a MAS comeback, which would make a Morales comeback a real possibility. She exhorted the opposition to unite and thus present one front against MAS. She urged further to do this because the democratic process was at stake.

However, Anez's decision was not solely based on good intentions. It was also based on the hard reality that support for her candidacy was dwindling.

Own elaboration

From the graph above we can distinctly see how Anez's support (the lighter blue line) goes down after having gained much during the March to August period. In her case, she initially profited from her government's response to the pandemic, where the country went into strict lock down and the cases remained low. Anez's response to the pandemic was largely seen as adequate. Between February and March, 17 to 18 percent of the voters said they were willing to vote for her. However, as her government sought to follow a mixed strategy of opening some areas while maintaining restrictions in others, it only seemed to add to the general confusion, leading to social unrest, which at the same time resulted in an increase in the number of infections. As the situation is currently at its worst, with the number of positive cases reaching hundreds of thousands and deaths reaching over 7 thousand, Anez's support has faded to 10 percent in September. In addition, cases of corruption where some officials bought malfunctioning breathing machines as well as other bought Chinese machines which were not working properly anymore, have damaged the image of her government. One factor affecting her chances all along has been the fact that she decided to run for office. According to a large part of the population, she should not run, she should concentrate instead on delivering the elections. Something that has not been happening, according to the opposition.

Will other candidates follow?

The big question is whether other candidates will follow suit and drop off the race as well. Anez's decision, intentionally or unintentionally, has put pressure on the other candidates in the opposition, namely Camacho, Quiroga, Chi, etc. The only candidate presumably not feeling that pressure is Carlos Mesa, who is in second place but trailing the MAS candidate, Arce, by little more than 10 points.

Camacho, who was in fourth place after Anez, although well behind the first place, promptly assessed Anez's decision by calling it a failure. He said she failed to follow her promise as well as failed to fulfill her political mandate. He also accused Anez of making deals with MAS.

Quiroga also weighed on Anez's decision saying she should have never decided to run for office. He said, in a two hour conversation where Anez asked for Quiroga's support, Quiroga urged her instead not to run and reminded her she was there solely to organize the next clean elections. 

Chi also lamented Anez's decision to run, but commended her decision to drop off. He said, that decision will have improved her image.

Mesa also commended Anez's decision and agreed with her efforts to unite the opposition. Mesa left open the possibility of alliances by affirming his alliance was open to talk with all interested parties. The aim being of course preventing a MAS comeback.

The MAS also weighed in, but deliberately left Arce out of the discussion. Instead, Morales commented the decision saying it was "treason against her supporters". 

In the end, in my opinion, there is only one more candidate relevant enough to make a difference if he drops out the race as well. If you look at Camacho's numbers, he has been picking up momentum. Especially interesting is a look at Pando, Beni and Santa Cruz, i.e. the low lands or as the region is known in Bolivia, el oriente.

Own elaboration

Camacho has managed to accumulate leading support in Santa Cruz (some 27 percentage points), but more importantly, his support numbers in Beni and Pando, where Janine Anez and Luis Arce are leading, are close to those numbers concerning the second and third places. We are talking about here support somewhere in the order of 10 percentage points. Elsewhere, Camacho seems to play a relatively insignificant role.

Now, would a Camacho's drop out help the opposition? It is certainly arguable when considering Santa Cruz. I mean, the department is the home of some 3.5 million Bolivians and the city of Santa Cruz de la Sierra (the largest city in Bolivia and the department capital) represents some 25 percent of the total population. The city has tended to vote for the opposition until 2014. This time around, many polls say the department is in the hands of the opposition. For example, the poll tuvotocuenta.org.bo says Santa Cruz supports Camacho. 

The trick is, if Camacho drops out of the race, would that translate one to one towards the support for another opposition candidate? Mesa, perhaps? As we have seen, the city has voted otherwise. I would not be comfortable to say this time around that support would go automatically to Mesa. Especially, considering that according to the polls the support for Mesa in the department is rather weak, he is in fourth place with an average of 10 percentage points. 

The only thing that comes to mind that would force people to get over whatever dislike they might have for Mesa is the idea that if they do not support Mesa, MAS is bound to return to government. It certainly looks that way now.

Sources:

https://erbol.com.bo/nacional/camacho-el-retiro-de-a%C3%B1ez-%E2%80%9Cno-es-un-desprendimiento-es-una-derrota%E2%80%9D

https://erbol.com.bo/nacional/tuto-la-presidente-fue-utilizada-por-un-partido-que-antes-la-hab%C3%ADa-desechado

https://eldeber.com.bo/usted-elige/mesa-y-pedraza-descartan-buscar-alianzas-y-apuestan-a-la-unidad-pero-en-el-voto_200959

https://erbol.com.bo/el-%C3%A1nfora-1/jeanine-a%C3%B1ez-confirma-que-baja-su-candidatura-%E2%80%9Csi-no-nos-unimos-vuelve-morales%E2%80%9D

https://www.eldiario.net/noticias/2020/2020_09/nt200907/principal.php?n=62&-evo-morales-inhabilitado-a-candidatura-para-senador

https://tuvotocuenta.org.bo/Resultados

https://www.paginasiete.bo/nacional/2020/2/21/el-tse-inhabilita-evo-por-no-residir-en-el-pais-la-decision-es-inapelable-247422.html

https://correodelsur.com/politica/20200904_el-tdj-de-la-paz-convoca-a-alfredo-jaimes-para-resolver-el-amparo-sobre-inhabilitacion-de-evo.html

https://www.noticiasfides.com/nacional/seguridad/dejan-en-manos-de-un-tercer-vocal-resolver-amparo-que-busca-habilitar-candidatura-de-evo-406137