Bolivian Elections 2020: Polling Update
Bolivia Today ©
The last post was about polling results and where do the candidates find themselves in the race. I actually took all the polls I found in the Electoral Tribunal's (TSE) website, added them all up and took an average, to get a single polling number. This number covered the time between February to August 2020. So take a look at this post to see those numbers.
Now, this post includes the results of the latest poll taken this month by a group of universities, media outlets and social organizations. These numbers can be found in tuvotocuenta.org.bo, (i.e. your vote counts) along with information about the poll and the people who are behind this effort.
Here I just want to show the updated numbers I come up with when including the tu voto cuenta poll. The numbers show the intention vote at the national and departmental levels and a historical view of the polls.
At the national level
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| Own elaboration |
The race is still between Arce and Mesa, with a minimal increase in Arce's numbers and an equally minimal decrease in Mesa's.
The average shows a 1 percentage point decrease in Anez's numbers.
Camacho also shows a slight increase, while Mr. Chi and Quiroga have not changed. The same can be said for the undecided and the people who said they will vote for nobody.
At the department level
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| Own elaboration |
At the department level, we confirm the picture given by the national level. It is a race between Arce and Mesa, with Arce leading the intention vote significantly in La Paz, Cochabamba, Pando and Oruro. Interesting is to see that Arce has surpassed Mesa in Potosi, getting closer to 25 points.
Equally interesting is the fact that Anez surpassed Camacho in Santa Cruz, but lost ground in Tarija to the two main candidates. Significant is however, her loss of support in her place of birth department Beni, losing some 6 percentage points.
As for Mesa, he has lost his slight lead in Potosi to Arce but kept his lead in Chuquisaca as well as his support across the country.
A historical view
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| Own elaboration |
The historical view of all the polls shows the most interesting things. It might help explain some developments of late.
For instance, for those of you who follow events in Bolivia and already know that Anez has just dropped out of the race, you might notice her polling numbers above declining over time. It is just logical that she would eventually take a decision like that. More on this on the next post.
Another interesting development is revealed by looking at the direction Arce's and Mesa's lines take over time. By mid-year, Arce and Mesa seem to converge to stage a close race, but by September the polls seem to diverge significantly. For analysis please read the next post.
While the rest of the candidates seem to have stayed where they were, the number of people who say they will vote for nobody has increased and the undecided number has decreased. Does that mean many people have already made up their minds and either they do not want to say for whom the will vote or they are actually planning to vote for nobody?
