Bolivian Elections 2020: Polls Updates 3 and 4

Bolivia Today © 

These are two graphs tracking the various polls published on the coming Bolivian presidential elections. The one above includes the two latest polls by IPSOS and Mercado y Muestras conducted in October. The one below only includes the IPSOS poll.

Own elaboration

The first graph above shows the simple average of polls since February. It includes the two latest polls conducted in October by IPSOS and Mercados y Muestras (published on October 11 in Pagina Siete). The second graph adds the latest poll published last October 8, conducted by IPSOS. Since, the electoral tribunal does not seem to be keeping track of the polls anymore, I am relying on various media articles reporting on the results. This particular poll was covered by several news media, here is the link to my preferred source. Hopefully the links will remain live for a long time.

My brief commentary focuses here on the gap between Luis Arce (MAS) and Carlos Mesa (CC), the two candidates with more chances, i.e. the first and second places in the polls, respectively. The numbers show Mesa is gaining ground on Arce. This makes the possibility of a second round elections more likely. And, if you recall my prior post on the polls, which explains why, I observed that in a second round, Mesa will be the winner. 

The IPSOS and the Mercados y Muestras polls seems to confirm what has been already said. In a second round, Mesa would win against Arce. 

One last thing. While Camacho seems to be gaining ground as well in this graph, going from 11 to 14, these numbers do not reflect Camacho's absence from the widely televised presidential debate on October 4. The IPSOS poll was conducted between September 21 and October 4. 

However, the Mercados y Muestras poll was conducted between September 20 and October 8 and these numbers might just be indeed reflecting the results, but I think it still too early to tell.

Camacho's absence was criticized, not only by pretty much everybody, but also from within his own coalition. Several people in leadership positions regretted he decided not to participate, and others were much severe questioning his leadership.

On his part, Camacho ended up blaming his absence on Mesa's campaign alleging he had been tricked into not attending. Apparently, the two campaigns had talked about the possibility of not attending as a strategic move. They thought Arce's reasoning was: let them fight and criticize each other. In the end, Mesa decided to attend. Mesa's communications man defended the campaign by saying he had informed Camacho of the decisions.

Being a savvy media-man that he is, I do not think Mesa would have let such an opportunity go. As noted in another post, the debate was widely covered by all types of media. Just yesterday, I was reading some newspapers reporting that alone in Facebook, more than a million people watched the debate. Taking into account, all the media such as radio, tv, social media, online outlets, etc., the coverage was significant. Sadly, there are no reliable numbers estimating how many people were watching. 

In any case, I take Camacho's excuse was not taken up by voters. Many were very disappointed. That is why I expect him to go down on the polls eventually.

New Developments

It seems the ADN candidate, Maria de la Cruz Baya, is not running for office anymore. There were reports from La Paz party leaders who said the party had decided to drop out of the race. While there is no official statement from Baya herself, I think she will drop out in the end.

Meanwhile, Jorge Quiroga has indeed dropped out of the race. He and his VP candidate issued a statement on October 11 saying they leave the race to strengthen Mesa so there is no MAS comeback. 

Politicians are afraid MAS will make a come back.

To finish this update, I post this image taken from ibce.org.bo, which is the Bolivian Institute for Trade (Instituto Boliviano de Comercio Exterior, IBCE). I have used this source before. Pay them a visit. They have interesting information.