Bolivian Elections 2020: Polls Update 5

Bolivia Today © 

Own elaboration

This is the latest graph including the latest Jubileo Foundation (Fundacion Jubileo) poll. The graph also shows a clearer picture because the two candidates, Janine Anez and Jorge Quiroga, who dropped out of the race, are not included anymore. 

You can see the two head race between Arce and Mesa, getting closer as the election approaches and other candidates quit.

The third in place is lost among the undecided and the will vote for nobody voters. 

Here is the graph including all candidates and all other polls plus the Jubileo poll.

Own elaboration

The Jubileo poll was conducted between October 2 and 5. It is supposed to be the largest poll conducted by around 1500 pollsters going door to door in around 234 municipalities and polling 15537 people. 

The poll is actually a collective effort. Here is a list of most participating organizations:

Fundación Jubileo, Universidad Mayor de San Andrés (UMSA), Facultad de Derecho y Ciencia Política, Carrera de Ciencia Política and Carrera de Estadística (UMSA), Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB), Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas, Políticas, Sociales y Relaciones Internacionales, Universidad Amazónica de Pando, Universidad San Francisco Xavier de Chuquisaca, Carrera de Ciencia Política Universidad Mayor de San Simón and Universidad Técnica de Oruro.

Televisión Universitaria, Agencia de Noticias Fides (ANF), red Educación Radiofónica de Bolivia (ERBOL), Acción Cultural Loyola (ACLO), San Miguel (Riberalta), Esperanza (Aiquile), red Pio XII, radio Santa Cruz, Instituto Radiofónico Fe y Alegría and El Diario.

CIPCA, la Ruta de la Democracia, Asociación Nacional de Periodistas de Bolivia (ANPB), Pastoral Social Cáritas Potosí, Fundación Tréveris – Chuquisaca and Diakonía Multimedia.

Also, as I pointed out in my prior posts, I would say again, this poll was conducted a bit too soon to fully reflect the effects of Quiroga's decision to leave the race and the other effects stemming from the October 4 televised debate, where Camacho was notoriously absent.

Take a look at the results yourself here.

One last thing. The poll shows the results for a possible second round. It predicts Mesa wins by a margin of 5 to 6 percentage points.

Source: tuvotocuenta.org.bo