Bolivia's Pivotal Election: A Shift in the Political Landscape
Introduction: A New Dawn for Bolivian Politics?
The general elections held on August 17, 2025, represent an undeniable turning point in Bolivian political history. For nearly two decades, the Movement for Socialism (MAS), led by the influential Evo Morales, had maintained an almost uninterrupted grip on power, shaping the country's political trajectory. This election, however, signals a significant departure from that era, potentially re-aligning the political power dynamics away from the "pink tide" of leftist leaders that once swept across Latin America. The preliminary results have confirmed that Bolivia will proceed to a presidential run-off election on October 19, a development unprecedented since the nation's return to democracy in 1982. This necessity for a second round underscores the fractured nature of the current political landscape and reflects a strong desire among the electorate for change, moving away from the single-round majorities that characterized the MAS's long period in government.
This electoral event unfolded against a backdrop of severe economic distress, which significantly influenced voter sentiment and turned public opinion against the MAS party. Bolivia has been grappling with a spiraling inflation rate, which surged from 2% to over 16% annually in less than two years. The country has also faced acute fuel scarcity and a desperate shortage of U.S. dollars, essential for importing critical goods like wheat, all of which have crippled the economy.
Compounding the economic woes, a bitter internal power struggle within the MAS between former President Evo Morales and the outgoing President Luis Arce played a crucial role in eroding the party's once-hegemonic control. This deep division ultimately fractured the party, creating a significant opening for opposition forces. The consistent emphasis across multiple sources on the "end of two decades of MAS dominance" suggests that these election results are more than just a temporary setback for the MAS. Instead, they appear to represent a fundamental and lasting shift in Bolivia's political landscape. The MAS, which governed almost continuously since 2005, built its power on the charisma of Evo Morales and a period of high commodity prices. However, the economic implosion under President Arce, who was Morales' finance minister, and the intense internal power struggle between Morales and Arce directly undermined public support and fragmented the party's base. This indicates that the MAS's decline is rooted in systemic issues of governance and internal cohesion, leading to a decisive voter repudiation. The 2025 election thus marks the definitive conclusion of the MAS's hegemonic era, signaling a profound re-alignment of political forces in Bolivia, driven by widespread economic discontent and internal party disarray.
The Electoral Outcome – A Run-off Confirmed
How the Elections Unfolded
On Sunday, August 17, 2025, Bolivians participated in general elections to choose their president, vice president, and members for both the 130-member Chamber of Deputies and the 36-member Senate. This comprehensive electoral process engaged nearly 8 million eligible voters, with the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) reporting 7,937,138 registered citizens. Voting is compulsory in Bolivia, a factor that historically contributes to high turnout rates, often exceeding 88%.
The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), which serves as the highest electoral body in Bolivia, meticulously oversaw the entire process. International observers from the European Union and the Organization of American States (OAS) were present, monitoring technical tests of the preliminary results transmission system and observing the assembly of ballot boxes. This international presence was particularly vital for bolstering the legitimacy of the electoral process, especially given Bolivia's recent history of electoral controversies, most notably the disputed 2019 elections.
Preliminary Results: National Tendencies
With over 91% to 92% of the ballots counted by Sunday night, preliminary results confirmed that Bolivia will proceed to a presidential run-off election on October 19. This second round became necessary because no single candidate managed to surpass the 50% vote threshold, nor did any secure 40% of the vote with a 10-point lead over the second-placed contender.
Leading Candidates
Rodrigo Paz Pereira of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), a centrist figure, emerged as the unexpected frontrunner. He secured approximately 32.1% to 32.8% of the vote. This outcome came as a significant surprise, as pre-election polls had indicated he had as little as 3% support or was not considered a frontrunner. Paz, a senator for Tarija and the son of former left-leaning President Jaime Paz, strategically positioned himself as a moderate. He distanced himself from more hardline right-wing proposals, such as selling Bolivia's abundant lithium reserves to foreign companies or seeking billions in loans from the International Monetary Fund, while still criticizing MAS's state-directed economic policies. His running mate, Edman Lara, a former police officer renowned for his anti-corruption efforts, likely enhanced Paz's appeal to a public wary of institutional malfeasance.
Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, a conservative former interim President of the Alianza Libre coalition, secured second place with approximately 26.4% to 26.9% of the vote. Quiroga, who served as president from 2001-2002, will now face Paz in the run-off, marking a contest between two non-MAS candidates.
Other Key Candidates and Least Votes
Samuel Doria Medina, a right-wing businessman representing Alianza Unidad, was a consistent frontrunner in pre-election polls, often leading with around 25% support.
1 However, he finished third with approximately 19.9% of the vote. This marks his fourth unsuccessful presidential bid. Following the preliminary results, he conceded defeat and announced his support for Rodrigo Paz in the run-off , potentially consolidating the anti-MAS vote.Andrónico RodrÃguez, the left-leaning Senate President and a former MAS member, secured approximately 8% of the vote, placing him fourth among the prominent candidates. Despite polling as high as 14% in June, his support declined significantly, reflecting the broader anti-MAS sentiment and the challenges faced by left-of-center alternatives not directly aligned with Morales.
Eduardo del Castillo, the current Interior Minister and the official MAS-IPSP candidate, received one of the lowest vote counts among the prominent candidates, finishing sixth with a mere 3.1% to 3.2% of the vote. This result is a stark blow to the MAS, a party that historically secured over 50% in the first round. Crucially, this slim margin is just enough for the MAS to maintain its legal personhood, which requires a minimum of 3% of the national vote. This outcome is a direct reflection of the deep unpopularity of the outgoing Luis Arce administration and the widespread anti-MAS sentiment.
Table 1: Preliminary Presidential Election Results (National)
| Candidate Name | Political Party/Alliance | Percentage of Votes (Approx.) | Number of Votes (Approx.) | Status |
| Rodrigo Paz Pereira | Christian Democratic Party (PDC) | 32.1% - 32.8% | 1.6 million | Advances to Run-off |
| Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga | Alianza Libre | 26.4% - 26.9% | 1.3 million | Advances to Run-off |
| Samuel Doria Medina | Alianza Unidad | 19.9% | 1 million | Eliminated (Conceded) |
| Andrónico RodrÃguez | Alianza PolÃtica | 8% | N/A | Eliminated |
| Eduardo del Castillo | MAS-IPSP | 3.1% - 3.2% | 159,769 | Eliminated |
Note: Percentages are preliminary and based on over 91% of ballots counted. Official results are due within seven days of the election.
Departmental Tendencies
While official post-election departmental results are still pending, pre-election polling offers valuable insights into regional voting patterns. Andrónico RodrÃguez, consistent with the MAS's traditional base, tended to perform better in the highlands, including La Paz, which are home to much of Bolivia's Indigenous Aymara and Quechua populations. In contrast, Samuel Doria Medina, representing more conservative and business-oriented interests, showed stronger support in the lowlands, particularly Santa Cruz, the country's economic and commercial hub. The full departmental breakdown, once released, will be crucial to understand how Rodrigo Paz, the centrist dark horse, managed to garner support across these traditionally polarized regions. His success might indicate an ability to appeal to voters beyond traditional regional or ideological divides.
The "Null Vote" Phenomenon
A striking and highly significant feature of the preliminary count was the exceptionally high percentage of null and void ballots, estimated at around 19.1%. Another preliminary report indicated 10.82% total null votes. This phenomenon is directly attributable to former President Evo Morales's explicit call for his supporters to cast null votes. Morales, barred from running for a fourth term by constitutional court rulings, used this strategy to express his rejection of the electoral process and to demonstrate his continued political relevance and ability to mobilize a significant portion of the electorate, even from outside the formal contest.
The unexpected lead of Rodrigo Paz, despite low pre-election polling, suggests a significant portion of the electorate was either undecided until late in the campaign or was not accurately captured by traditional polls. This indicates a desire for a "new face" that is neither the traditional, fractured left nor the more established, potentially polarizing, right-wing figures like Doria Medina and Quiroga. Paz's centrist position, combined with his running mate's anti-corruption credentials, likely offered a perceived safe and reformist alternative to a public weary of political infighting and economic woes. This reflects a nuanced voter sentiment, seeking change from MAS but hesitant about a dramatic veer to the right.
The unusually high null vote percentage is a critical observation. While Bolivian law states that null votes cannot win or trigger a re-election, their sheer volume, directly influenced by Evo Morales's appeal, serves multiple purposes. Firstly, it undeniably highlights Morales's enduring influence and his capacity to mobilize a substantial base, even when barred from direct participation. Secondly, it signals a deep level of dissatisfaction and disengagement from the current political offerings, implying that a significant segment of the population feels unrepresented or actively rejects the legitimacy of an election without their preferred leader. Thirdly, and with broader implications, this large protest vote could potentially undermine the perceived mandate of the eventual run-off winner, especially if the margin of victory is close to the null vote percentage. This represents a significant challenge to democratic consolidation and stability, as a large portion of the electorate remains alienated and potentially prone to future mobilization outside conventional political channels. The preliminary results thus reveal a complex and fragmented electorate, seeking change from MAS but wary of extreme shifts, and a significant portion of which is actively protesting the political system itself through null votes, signaling continued political instability regardless of the run-off outcome.
Incidents and Irregularities
Pre-Election Tensions and Political Fragmentation
The 2025 elections were preceded by a highly contentious political climate, deeply marked by the internal schism within the ruling MAS party. The power struggle between current President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales, who had been MAS's emblematic leader for 27 years, ultimately fractured the party and presented the opposition with a genuine opportunity for victory.
A major flashpoint leading up to the elections was the constitutional court's decision to bar Evo Morales from running for a fourth presidential term. Morales vehemently rejected these rulings and publicly criticized his former protégé, Andrónico RodrÃguez, for entering the contest. Following Morales's disqualification, his supporters staged mass protests and set up roadblocks in June 2025. These demonstrations reportedly escalated into violent clashes, resulting in the deaths of four police officers and two protesters, with some reports indicating a total of eight deaths. Bolivia's attorney general subsequently announced an investigation into Morales for alleged crimes in relation to these roadblocks. Morales also faces criminal charges related to an alleged relationship with a minor in 2015, which he denies, and his supporters have reportedly shielded him from arrest. These allegations, alongside his attempts to prolong his presidency, soured public opinion against him.
Broader Allegations of Corruption and Distrust
Beyond these specific incidents, a pervasive distrust of state institutions and widespread concerns about corruption permeated the pre-election environment. The Latinobarometro's 2024 survey underscored this sentiment, ranking Bolivia highly on perceived corruption (7.8 out of 10), with a dismal 7% of respondents believing votes were generally "clean" in Bolivia – the lowest rate in the region. This data points to a deep-seated institutional weakness within the country.
Allegations of influence peddling and environmental crimes against President Luis Arce's youngest son, reported by a media consortium in May 2025, further fueled public cynicism, despite the president's denial of wrongdoing. Bolivia's recent history also includes serious allegations of voter fraud in the October 2019 elections, which contributed to Evo Morales's resignation and a subsequent political crisis. While some analyses later argued that these fraud claims were unfounded or based on methodological and coding errors, the public perception of irregularities remained a significant factor shaping distrust in the electoral system.
Election Day Incidents
Despite the tense pre-election atmosphere and historical precedents of unrest, the president of the electoral court, Óscar Hassenteufel, stated that the elections were, "overall, taking place in an atmosphere of considerable calm". This assessment suggests that the pre-election tensions did not translate into widespread disruption on election day itself.
However, isolated incidents of disruption and expressions of public discontent were reported. As Senator Andrónico RodrÃguez cast his vote in Entre RÃos, Cochabamba – a traditional Morales stronghold – he was booed by some voters who threw stones and glass bottles. A clash reportedly broke out between his supporters and opponents, though he left unharmed and escorted by armed forces, it has been reported that at least one of his aides was seriously injured. This incident highlights the deep divisions even within the leftist base, with some Morales loyalists viewing RodrÃguez as a "traitor" for challenging Morales's influence. In La Paz, President Luis Arce was greeted with chants by supporters but was also openly criticized and harassed by a voter who questioned his government's handling of the country's economic crisis. In Santa Cruz de la Sierra, the MAS candidate Eduardo del Castillo was reportedly booed for attempting to skip a voting queue, a minor but symbolic act reflecting widespread public frustration with the outgoing MAS administration.
The events of election day, when compared to the widespread, system-challenging allegations of fraud in 2019, suggest a different dynamic. While the 2019 claims had "dramatic political consequences", the 2025 incidents, though notable, did not appear to compromise the overall integrity of the vote as assessed by the electoral court. However, the perception of corruption and distrust remains alarmingly high among Bolivians. This indicates that even if the 2025 election was procedurally sound, the public's underlying skepticism, fueled by past events and ongoing allegations (e.g., against Arce's son, and Morales's criminal charges), could still impact post-election stability and the legitimacy of the incoming government. This represents a crucial challenge for democratic consolidation in Bolivia.
Furthermore, the election day incidents involving prominent candidates are not random occurrences but direct manifestations of the deep political polarization and internal party fractures (such as the MAS split and Morales's disqualification) that defined the pre-election period. The booing and stone-throwing directed at RodrÃguez in a Morales stronghold directly reflects the "backstabbing" narrative pushed by Morales against his former protégé. This demonstrates that while large-scale, coordinated disruptions were avoided, the underlying anger, frustration, and ideological divisions are very much present at the grassroots level, simmering beneath the surface of official calm.
Security Measures and the Day's Calm
Extensive Precautionary Measures
In anticipation of potential unrest, the Bolivian government implemented a series of stringent, nationwide restrictions aimed at ensuring order and preventing disruption on election day. These measures were broadly communicated and applied to all citizens, including foreign nationals.
Key restrictions, in effect from Friday, August 15, until Monday, August 18, included:
A ban on the sale and consumption of alcoholic beverages.
Prohibition of unauthorized vehicle circulation.
Suspension of Teleferico service in La Paz, a key public transport system.
A ban on public gatherings.
A complete halt of domestic flights operating within Bolivia, though international flights were exempted.
The U.S. Embassy in La Paz also issued security alerts, advising its citizens to avoid areas of demonstrations and roadblocks, exercise caution in the vicinity of large gatherings, and ensure adequate supplies of food, water, and fuel for several weeks. These advisories reflected significant concerns about potential post-election unrest.
The Day's Security Environment
Despite the high political tensions leading up to the vote and a history of demonstrations, civil unrest, and roadblocks following past elections, the general election day on August 17, 2025, was largely characterized by "considerable calm," as reported by the president of the electoral court. The visible presence of security forces, as evidenced by the escort provided to Senator Andrónico RodrÃguez after an incident at his polling station, likely contributed to maintaining order. The absence of widespread, large-scale demonstrations or roadblocks, which have historically marred Bolivian electoral periods, suggests that the comprehensive security measures and a degree of public compliance contributed significantly to preventing major disruptions.
The stark contrast between the severe pre-election warnings and the reported "considerable calm" on election day is a crucial observation. This implies that the government's proactive and extensive security measures – including the alcohol ban, vehicle restrictions, flight bans, and public gathering prohibitions – were highly effective in containing potential unrest and ensuring an orderly voting process. However, this calm should not be misinterpreted as a resolution of Bolivia's deep political frustrations. The isolated incidents involving candidates and the massive null vote indicate that the underlying political tensions and discontent were not resolved but rather suppressed or channeled through the ballot box. This suggests a fragile peace, heavily reliant on state control during the electoral period, rather than a genuine societal reconciliation. The relative calm on election day was likely a direct result of the government's stringent security measures and restrictions, effectively preventing large-scale disruptions. However, this calm should not be mistaken for a resolution of Bolivia's deep political and social tensions, which remain simmering beneath the surface and could resurface in the lead-up to the run-off and beyond.
Conclusion: The Road Ahead for Bolivia
The August 17, 2025, general elections in Bolivia have undeniably marked a historic turning point, bringing an end to two decades of MAS political dominance and ushering in an unprecedented presidential run-off. At the same time, the exceptionally high percentage of null votes, directly driven by Evo Morales's call, underscores a persistent and/or profound dissatisfaction within the electorate and outright rejection of the current political offerings. Also, this highlights the enduring fragmentation of the left and a deep sense of disenfranchisement among a significant portion of the population. While election day itself was largely calm, a testament to stringent security measures, the pre-election period was marked by significant unrest, clashes, and allegations of political interference and corruption, reflecting a deep-seated dissatisfaction with political institutions, which seem to be a recurring theme in Bolivian politics.
Implications for the Run-off and Beyond
The run-off between Paz and Quiroga on October 19 will be a critical contest, forcing voters to choose between two distinct visions for Bolivia's future, particularly concerning economic policy (e.g., lithium sector development, engagement with the IMF) and international relations (e.g., ties with China/Russia vs. democratic countries). Paz's more moderate, anti-corruption stance versus Quiroga's more traditional right-wing approach will define the next phase of the campaign.
The significant "null vote" bloc represents a crucial, unaligned segment of the electorate whose future political engagement and potential for mobilization will be a key factor in the long-term stability of the country. Their continued disaffection could pose a challenge to the legitimacy of the incoming government. The new government, taking office on November 8, will face the immediate and daunting task of addressing the severe economic crisis and attempting to bridge the deep political and social divides exposed by this election.
The election outcome, particularly Rodrigo Paz's unexpected lead, suggests a tendency for a more centrist and pragmatic path rather than a radical swing to the far-right. This is a subtle yet crucial implication, indicating a preference for stability over ideological purity. However, assuming the massive null vote remains significant, it would suggest a strong caveat to any perceived clear mandate for the incoming government. It would signal that a large portion of the population feels alienated or disenfranchised, creating a persistent challenge to the legitimacy and stability of future governance. The new administration will need to navigate this complex landscape, balancing the urgent need for economic reform with addressing deep-seated public grievances and rebuilding trust in state institutions. Bolivia is thus entering a new, uncertain political chapter. The run-off will determine the immediate leadership, but the deeper challenges of economic recovery, political reconciliation, and rebuilding public trust will define the next government's mandate and the country's long-term stability.
