General Elections 2025: A Pre-Vote Update
Bolivia's Pivotal Elections: A Pre-Vote Update
Bolivia is on the cusp of a significant electoral event this coming Sunday, August 17, when citizens will elect a new president, vice president, and a new congress. This election is poised to reshape the nation's political landscape after two decades of continuous governance under the leftist Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party. The current political climate is marked by deep divisions, economic challenges, and a complex candidate field, making the outcome highly uncertain and potentially leading to a runoff election. This update aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the current political and social situation, the dynamics of the presidential race, and the extensive preparations undertaken by the electoral authorities to ensure a peaceful and orderly vote.
The Evolving Political and Social Landscape
Bolivia's political environment ahead of the August 17 elections is characterized by profound fragmentation within its traditional political forces and escalating social tensions, largely driven by a severe economic downturn.
Political Fragmentation and Judicial Scrutiny
The long-dominant MAS party, which has governed Bolivia since 2005 with a brief interruption in 2019-2020, is facing an unprecedented internal schism. A protracted power struggle between incumbent President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales has fractured the party into several competing factions. This internal conflict has been exacerbated by judicial interventions, the most significant being that Morales's candidacy has been barred from taking part in the elections by constitutional court rulings. In addition, President Arce, facing low approval ratings, has withdrawn from the race. In his place instead, MAS leadership has selected Eduardo del Castillo, Arce's former interior minister, as their presidential candidate. Finally, the MAS-aligned president of the Bolivian Senate, Andrónico RodrÃguez, a former protégé of Morales, is running as the candidate for Alianza PolÃtica, a coalition of left-leaning and center-left parties, further dividing the leftist vote. Morales has openly criticized RodrÃguez for entering the contest, highlighting the deep rifts within the broader leftist movement.
On the right, attempts to form a united opposition coalition have largely failed, with several prominent right-leaning candidates running on individual platforms. Among these, the most prominent are businessman Samuel Doria Medina, representing Alianza Unidad, and former president Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga, of Alianza Libre. This fragmentation on both sides of the political spectrum suggests a highly contested election where no single candidate is likely to secure an outright victory in the first round.
The judiciary's role in barring Morales's candidacy has also raised concerns about political interference in Bolivia's justice system, contributing to a generalized distrust of state institutions among the population. This perceived politicization of the judiciary deepens the country's governance crisis and undermines public trust in the electoral process itself.
Economic Hardship and Public Discontent
Bolivia is grappling with a severe economic downturn, characterized by record-high inflation, shortages of essential goods such as gasoline, diesel, basic foodstuffs, and medicine, and a lack of formal employment opportunities. These "pocketbook issues" are the top concerns for voters, alongside politization and corruption in the justice system, blockades, insecurity, violence against women, drug trafficking, and environmental destruction. The economic crisis has significantly eroded support for the MAS government, with President Arce's disapproval ratings soaring to over 70% by mid-2025.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recommended that Bolivia adopt a "credible and sustained fiscal consolidation" by rationalizing wages, phasing out fuel subsidies, enhancing public investment efficiency, and boosting tax revenue. While all major presidential candidates acknowledge the necessity of reducing fuel subsidies, the specifics of how and when to implement such painful reforms remain a contentious point, given the potential for public protest in a country with a long history of protests. The economic instability not only fuels public discontent but also shapes the policy proposals of the leading candidates, who are all compelled to address the crisis in their platforms.
Pre-Election Social Tensions
The political and economic strains have translated into tangible social unrest. Following the constitutional court's decision to block Evo Morales's candidacy in June 2025, his supporters staged mass protests and set up roadblocks, which reportedly resulted in clashes that left several police officers and protesters dead. Such demonstrations and roadblocks have been a recurring feature of past elections in Bolivia and can be unpredictable and violent.
International bodies, including the U.S. Embassy and Smartraveller.gov.au, have issued security alerts, advising citizens to exercise a high degree of caution, avoid areas of demonstrations and roadblocks, and be aware of increased protest activity leading up to the election. The volatile environment also impacts the media, with journalists expressing fears of escalating press attacks, violence, economic and administrative pressure, smear campaigns, and digital harassment, which can impede independent reporting and contribute to a climate of fear. This underscores the challenges in ensuring a truly free and fair electoral process amidst such a charged atmosphere.
The Candidate Landscape: Who Leads the Race?
With just days until the election, nine candidates are vying for the presidency, but no single contender has garnered sufficient support to avoid a runoff election, which is currently scheduled for October 19, 2025. A significant portion of the electorate remains undecided or intends to cast blank or null ballots, indicating widespread voter uncertainty and a potential for shifts in support.
Leading Contenders and Their Platforms
The latest polls from June and July 2025 consistently show two right-leaning candidates in the lead: Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga.
Current Polling Snapshot (June-July 2025)
| Candidate | Party/Alliance | Support Range (Polls) |
| Samuel Doria Medina | Alianza Unidad | 21.2% - 25% |
| Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga | Alianza Libre | 20.7% - 23% |
| Andrónico RodrÃguez | Alianza Popular | 6% - 14% |
| Eduardo del Castillo | MAS-IPSP | ~1.9% |
| Manfred Reyes Villa | APB Súmate | Included in "Other" |
| Blank/Null/Undecided | >25% |
Note: Data compiled from Captura, Unitel, El Deber, and SPIE polls.
Samuel Doria Medina (Alianza Unidad): A 66-year-old business magnate and former minister of planning, Doria Medina is running for president for the fourth time. He positions himself as a centrist and social democrat, aiming to attract former MAS supporters looking for an alternative outside the conservative right. His platform focuses on stabilizing the economy within 100 days, which includes reducing fuel and other subsidies, emphasizing transparency, and providing incentives for small businesses through tax reductions and less red tape. He advocates for closing "useless" state entities, implementing austerity measures, lifting price controls, and creating a $5 billion stabilization fund. Doria Medina also expresses admiration for Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele's security strategy, a stance that resonates amid rising illicit drug trafficking in Bolivia. His strongest support is observed among the middle classes.
Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga (Alianza Libre): The 65-year-old former president (2001-2002) is the main standard-bearer for Bolivia's right wing. He has consistently warned against the MAS's economic populism and seeks to dramatically shrink the government's role in the economy. Quiroga advocates for an IMF rescue package and stricter austerity measures than other candidates. His proposals include digitalizing government for efficiency and transparency, privatizing state firms, reforming the judiciary, and providing every adult with a "popular property title" worth $1,500 as a symbolic share of natural resources. Quiroga appeals to conservative voters and those deeply disillusioned by the Arce government, seeking a return to pre-2005 Bolivia.
Andrónico RodrÃguez (Alianza Popular): At 36, the current Senate President is the leading candidate among the left-of-center options. Despite his MAS background and being a former protégé of Evo Morales, he is running independently, attempting to present a younger, more moderate vision of the left. RodrÃguez's platform includes a gradual reduction of fuel and other subsidies through "intelligent austerity," prioritizing spending for disadvantaged sectors, and cutting bureaucracy. Notably, he favors seeking loans from groups like BRICS over traditional lenders such as the IMF to inject dollars into the economy. Geographically, RodrÃguez tends to perform better in the highlands, including La Paz, and among the Aymara and Quechua populations, which are traditional MAS strongholds.
Eduardo del Castillo (MAS-IPSP): The former Minister of Government under Arce, del Castillo, 36, was selected by the MAS leadership after Arce withdrew his candidacy. His polling numbers are currently very low, reflecting the MAS's internal divisions and the broader anti-incumbent sentiment.
Manfred Reyes Villa (APB Súmate): The current Mayor of Cochabamba, Reyes Villa, 70, is running on a right-wing platform emphasizing law and order, including the potential use of the military to end blockades. His economic plan aims to generate one million jobs, implement tax reform, and lift subsidies, while also focusing on exporting and bringing foreign currency into the country, particularly through lithium development. Reyes Villa has a controversial past, including a conviction for "anti-economic misconduct" and a suspended prison sentence, which may affect his broader appeal.
Expected Outcome: A Runoff is Imminent
Given that no candidate is polling above 25% and the requirement for an outright win is either over 50% or 40% with a 10-point lead over the nearest rival, a runoff election on October 19, 2025, is a near certainty. The high percentage of undecided voters, exceeding the support for any individual candidate, indicates that the electorate is highly volatile and could significantly shift allegiances in the weeks leading up to the first round and certainly before a potential second round. The outcome of this election will be pivotal, potentially ushering in a center-right, market-oriented government after two decades of MAS rule, or deepening political chaos and potentially shifting Bolivia's foreign policy alignments towards countries like China and Russia.
Electoral Preparations and Security Measures
The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) and various international bodies have undertaken extensive preparations to ensure the August 17 elections run smoothly and transparently, especially in light of Bolivia's recent history of electoral controversies and social unrest.
TSE's Comprehensive Preparations
The TSE has been meticulously preparing for the elections, focusing on logistics, training, and transparency. Approximately eight million ballots have been printed for the 7,937,138 eligible Bolivian voters, both domestically and abroad. A total of 35,253 electoral kits are being prepared, with 34,026 for domestic use and 1,227 for voting abroad. These kits, which include voter rolls, pens, markers, and ink, are being distributed to the nine Departmental Electoral Tribunals (TEDs) under strict chain-of-custody protocols.
A crucial aspect of the preparations is the training of 204,156 election officials, known as "jurors," who are randomly selected citizens responsible for the proper functioning of polling stations across the country. The TSE emphasizes that these officials play a key role in ensuring a transparent, orderly, impartial, and reliable electoral process. The TSE has also conducted simulations of preliminary results transmission to test the electoral technology and processes. Furthermore, the voter registry, which is biometric and permanently updated, has undergone rigorous efforts to ensure accuracy and inclusion, including removing deceased citizens and facilitating registration changes. The TSE has actively sought to rebuild its authority and credibility through transparency initiatives, such as opening Voter Registry Transparency Labs and engaging in dialogue with political forces and social actors.
International Observation and Security Protocols
In response to an invitation from Bolivian authorities, the European Union (EU) has deployed an Election Observation Mission (EOM) to observe the general elections. The EU EOM comprises a Core Team of election experts, 32 Long-Term Observers deployed across all nine departments, and an additional 50 Short-Term Observers who will arrive shortly before Election Day, totaling over 100 observers. A delegation from the European Parliament will also join the mission. The EU EOM operates independently and impartially, adhering to a strict code of conduct, and aims to make a positive contribution to the electoral process by fostering stability and confidence. Their observers will engage with local stakeholders, political parties, and civil society organizations, providing updates on the electoral campaign and logistical preparations, and will remain in the country to observe the post-electoral period, including any potential complaints or appeals.
To guarantee the normal conduct of elections and maintain public order, the electoral authorities have put in place several restrictions and security measures:
Transport Restrictions: Public transport will be suspended from midnight Sunday, August 17, until midnight Monday, August 18. Very limited private transport will be allowed only with a permit. International flights will continue, but taxi services to and from airports will be limited to those with special permission.
Alcohol and Gatherings: The sale and consumption of alcohol, as well as large public gatherings, are prohibited from midnight Friday, August 15, until midnight Monday, August 18.
Demonstration Ban: Public demonstrations are banned from midnight on August 14 until 6 PM on August 17.
Penalties: Penalties for breaching these rules are severe and can include imprisonment until the end of election day.
Citizen Conduct and Safety Advice
Citizens are strongly advised to:
Avoid Demonstrations: Stay away from any areas of demonstrations and roadblocks, as these can be unpredictable and have turned violent in the past.
Monitor Media: Closely monitor local media and other reliable sources for updates and follow the advice of local authorities.
Personal Security: Exercise a high degree of caution due to the threat of violent crime and the risk of civil unrest. Be alert to petty theft, violent crime (including armed robbery, assault, and food/drink spiking), and express kidnappings. Use only well-known radio taxi companies.
Travel Documents: Ensure travel documents are up to date and easily accessible.
These measures are designed to mitigate the risks of civil unrest and ensure that the electoral process can proceed without major disruptions, reflecting a proactive approach by the authorities to safeguard the integrity and peacefulness of the vote.
Conclusion
Bolivia's general elections on August 17 are unfolding against a backdrop of profound political fragmentation within the ruling MAS party, a severe economic crisis, and heightened social tensions. The political landscape is highly competitive, with no single presidential candidate expected to secure an outright victory in the first round, making a runoff election in October a near certainty. Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga currently lead the polls from the center-right, while Andrónico RodrÃguez leads the fragmented left-of-center options. A significant portion of the electorate remains undecided, indicating a fluid and unpredictable outcome.
The Supreme Electoral Tribunal has implemented comprehensive preparations, including extensive ballot production, juror training, and logistical safeguards, supported by the presence of a large European Union Election Observation Mission, all aimed at ensuring a transparent and credible process. Concurrently, strict security measures and citizen restrictions, such as bans on public transport, alcohol consumption, and large gatherings, are in place to prevent unrest and maintain order on Election Day. The confluence of these factors underscores the critical nature of this election, which will not only determine Bolivia's next leadership but also its future economic and political direction. The capacity of the country's institutions to manage the post-electoral period, including potential appeals and the inevitable runoff, will be a crucial test for Bolivia's democratic stability.
